The government on February 9 said it expects the annual gross domestic
product (GDP) to grow at 7.4 percent in the current fiscal under a new method
for computing national accounts, thereby resulting in the upward economic
growth rate. "Real GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2014-15 is
likely to attain a level of Rs.106.57 lakh crore, as against the first revised
estimate of GDP for the year 2013-14 of Rs.99.21 lakh crore, released on Jan
30, 2015," the central statistics office (CSO) said in its advance
estimates of national income 2014-15. "The growth in GDP during 2014-15 is
estimated at 7.4 percent as compared to the growth rate of 6.9 percent in
2013-14," it added. The CSO, under the ministry of statistics and
programme implementation, had shifted base year from 2004-05 to 2011-12, and
had come out with the new annual estimate of national income and other
macroeconomic aggregates on Jan 30, 2015. Under the new method, CSO measures
GDP by market prices instead of factor costs, to take into account gross value
addition (GVA) in goods and services and indirect taxes. The base year of
national accounts was last revised in January 2010. The CSO had earlier said
that following international practices, industry-wise estimates will be
presented as gross value added (GVA) at basic prices, while GDP at market
prices will henceforth be referred to as GDP. The CSO has also revised the
growth rate for the first half of 2014-15 to 7.4 percent, from the 5.5 percent
it had reported earlier under the old method. At constant prices of 2011-12,
the CSO has revised the October-December GDP rate to 7.5 percent. While the
growth rate calculated under the new system for the second quarter has been
revised to 8.2 percent, that for the first quarter has been pegged at 6.5
percent. The CSO said these estimates are based on the anticipated level of
agricultural production, index of industrial production (IIP), monthly accounts
of union government expenditure and of state government expenditure. The data
furnished by CSO shows that financial, real estate, professional services,
trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting,
public administration, defence, electricity, gas, water supply and other
utility services grew at the rate of over seven percent. The growth in
agriculture, forestry and fishing has been estimated to be at 1.1 percent,
mining and quarrying at 2.3 percent, construction at 4.5 percent and
manufacturing at 6.8 percent. Commenting on the data the Confederation of
Indian Industry said: “A lot of effort has gone into developing the new GDP
series and CII would like to commend the work done by CSO.” "While growth
in most sectors is estimated to have picked up from the previous year, there
has been deceleration in three sectors: agriculture, mining and trade, hotels,
transport and communication. Growth in capital formation still remains weak at
1.3 percent and needs to be strengthened," it added. Jyotsna Suri,
president of industry chamber Ficci, in a statement here said : "We must
remember that large segments of the industrial sector are still faced with
muted demand, and a sustained increase in GDP requires both investment and
consumption demand to move full speed ahead. We are looking forward to the
ensuing budget and hope to see more measures by the government to give a boost
to the investment cycle." "With a growth rate of 6.9 percent in FY
2013-14, the April-December FY 2014-15 GDP growth at 7.4 percent suggests that
slowdown is behind us and recovery is gaining strong momentum," said Alok
B. Shriram, president, PHD Chamber.